McKinsey & Company’s “Chasing the lost copper” paints a vivid portrait of a world hurtling toward a 3.6 million metric tons (Mt) copper gap by 2035. Yet it is in scrap, those loose strands of copper wire, discarded circuit boards, hibernating appliances, that we find both our Achilles’ heel and our salvation.
McKinsey forecasts demand swelling from 29.5 Mt in 2025 to 37.3 Mt in 2035, a 2.4 percent annual rise driven by electrification, renewables, EVs, and grid expansions across China, Western Europe, and North America, while primary mine output barely inches from 23.9 Mt to 24.8 Mt. The result: a yawning 3.6 Mt shortfall.
Into this breach steps scraps.
Postconsumer copper offerings are set to climb from 5.6 Mt to 8.9 Mt (1.3 percent compound annual growth rate), yet formal scrap processing capacity still trails by over 1 Mt come 2035. Even so, the carbon dividends are undeniable: recycled cathodes emit 0.6 metric tons of CO2 versus 2.9 and 3.7 metric tons of CO2 for ore‐derived material, an 85 percent cut in emissions, given that the mine site alone accounts for roughly 67 percent of value‑chain CO2.
Here’s the Challenge:
40 percent of the scrap pool, roughly 7.8 Mt by 2035, will evade the formal chain, stranded in landfills or informal markets. That uncollected mass almost mirrors the supply gap itself. Armenia, sitting atop its mineral reserves and with nascent recycling infrastructure, can turn this “lost copper” into a strategic advantage.
We are at a crossroads where sovereignty isn’t forged solely in mines but in the mills and smelters that give life to yesterday’s gadgets.
What needs to happen?
– Investing in secondary smelting scale-up to build up a capacity to process scraps, aligning with McKinsey’s gap estimate.
– Forge Original Equipment Manufacturers (OEMs) and recycler alliances by establishing closed-loop contracts with consumer‑electronics giants and automakers to channel e-waste into Armenia’s circular hubs.
– Enact ironclad traceability and extended producer responsibility regulations. Mandate collection, guarantee quality, and lure informal collectors into the formal fold, harnessing copper scraps before they vanish.
The copper gap is a global storm brewing – demand’s soaring, mines are falling behind, and scrap copper is the world’s best shot at closing it. Those who turn scrap into leverage, who act decisively, will shape the global struggle over resources, climate, and economic power, becoming testaments to circular resilience.
A Looming Deficit and a Climate Lever
